E-commerce Packaging Trends Favor Square Designs for Automation and Efficiency

During the recent holiday shipping rush, the average consumer likely overlooked a crucial aspect of e-commerce: the shape of their packages. As goods move through automated supply chains, squared-off designs like cardboard boxes are increasingly dominant. Industry experts say this form factor also supports marketing and emissions reduction efforts.

In several cases, brands are shifting from flexible packaging to rigid square or rectangular shapes, sometimes returning to boxes after using other formats. Performance, efficiency, and sustainability factors influence this "squarification" trend. Flexible packaging can be more prone to being squashed and shifting during transit compared to boxes.

But a key reason box-shaped packaging currently leads e-commerce is robotics. "E-commerce is becoming increasingly automated," said Leon Nicholas, vice president of retail insights and solutions at Smurfit Westrock, in an interview with Packaging Dive. "Robots generally do better with things that are squared and perfectly dimensionalized."

Robots used in e-commerce fulfillment typically pick up items via suction, and they often struggle with flexible materials. "It's very, very difficult to utilize mailers or any kind of really flexible packaging material with automation. Automation always works best when something is sort of rigid and square or rectangular," added Greg Walls, vice president of revenue at cartonization software company Paccurate.

Squarification is not limited to secondary packaging. Some brands are adopting rigid square or rectangle packaging as more products ship in their own containers (SIOC). Consumer goods like snacks or pet food, which traditionally used flexible packaging, are increasingly appearing in boxes ideal for SIOC. This shift also applies to products once sold mainly in bottles or jugs, such as wine and laundry detergent.

For primary packaging, "we've seen some very interesting shifts to square packaging in the vitamin and mineral category, particularly by new brands like Olly and Natrol, and specifically in the gummy segment," said Ron Sasine, advisor to Kearney's Product Excellence and Renewal Lab and former senior director of packaging for private brands at Walmart.

Square shapes are also preferred for omnichannel packaging, which Nicholas describes as "packaging that does just as well on a shelf as it does on a pallet as it does in a locker or picked by a robot." This is valuable as more retailers fulfill e-commerce orders by pulling products from brick-and-mortar back rooms instead of separate distribution centers.

"That is going to be what eventually permits those large retailers to put products in people's hands in the shortest amount of time, at the fastest ease of distribution," Sasine said, noting this model's use at Walmart, Kroger, and Whole Foods retail stores.

Data indicates e-commerce will continue to grow. A quarterly report from RaboResearch released in December showed adjusted e-commerce sales in North America comprised 16.2% of total retail sales and called e-commerce "the most important driver for containerboard demand."

That same month, market research firm Smithers forecasted that corrugated packaging would have the highest growth rate among e-commerce packaging, with a 9.5% compound annual growth rate through 2029. This follows Smithers' 2023 report that corrugated is the most common e-commerce packaging type, representing 80% of the market.

Large retailers and e-commerce companies are increasingly automating operations. These factors will boost reliance on squared-off packaging—instead of round, irregular, or flexible options—in the coming years, sources say.

"Automation, by its very nature, prefers rectangular prisms," Sasine said. "Geometry that favors automation is going to be more important in the future. It will become a big driver of packaging design for both primary and secondary formats."

Are you dense?

Despite the preference for squared-off packaging, "you don't want to have a square with air," Nicholas said. There's an industrywide push for package and shipment densification, which Nicholas calls "the war on air," to improve shipping sustainability, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness.

Dimensioning—calculating the weight and volume of a package—factors into supply chain planning, optimization, and costs.

"FedEx and UPS penalize you if you have a lot of air in your package. ... That's more or less the intent of what they call dimensional weight," said Paccurate's Walls. "If you ship less air, you're wasting less money and you're wasting less material."

Squared-off packaging often allows for greater shipment density—as long as it fits snugly around the product. That's where rightsizing comes in.

While hand-packing stations typically have a limited stock of box sizes, rightsizing equipment forms the minimum-sized box required around a product. This concept also reduces or eliminates the need for void fill.

"Rightsized packaging is definitely a trend that we're seeing. ... Shipping costs and fuel costs continue to increase, so there's more and more focus on this type of packaging initiative," said David Gray, senior vice president of sales at automated packaging system supplier Sparck Technologies. "The cost savings is the number one driver for people who adopt our solution. But sustainability is also a very important aspect."

Rightsizing is "definitely more efficient during shipping, because you're not shipping as much air—you're able to fit more boxes into your truck. There's more carbon reduction that way," said Xinnan Li, packaging and logistics analyst at RaboResearch.

Rightsizing can also reduce packaging material usage, aligning with brands' and e-commerce providers' sustainability goals. For instance, Amazon has repeatedly touted its efforts for lightweighting and packaging reduction.

However, not all rightsizing efforts yield full benefits. In some cases, automated packing machines fold over, rather than cut off and recycle, excess box material during rightsizing, Li explained. The doubled-up box walls still produce a smaller box that improves shipment density, but they don't fully support material reduction. Therefore, rightsizing's impact on "corrugated usage is not as big as people previously thought" when looking at the square footage of box material used, Li said.

Flexibles aren't being squeezed out, though. Automation is advancing to allow robot pickers to be faster and more precise, including with flexible or round objects. Many companies are also turning to flexible packaging—plastic or fiber—to reduce overall material use.

Those secondary packaging solutions are still used for only a subset of e-commerce shipments—such as mailers for clothing or small items—and boxes continue to lead the space, sources say.

"I definitely think the poly bags are going away. We are seeing people looking to move into cardboard mailers," Walls said.

Marketing modifications

Switching from rounded to squared-off primary packaging can also bring marketing benefits. At a basic level, more messaging is visible on flat panels instead of round packaging. Consumers also respond differently to various packaging shapes.

Sasine said he was previously involved in packaging research that concluded it would be more efficient and sustainable to transition from tall, narrow cartons to shorter, more squat ones. However, the consumer "interprets tall as value driving, and short as a lesser-value product," he said.

Sometimes, consumers view shape changes as a sign of shrinkflation, Sasine said, citing the recent backlash over the new juice bottle shape Tropicana introduced in 2024, which is more rectangular than the previous curvy version. While the standard bottles did decrease in size from 52 ounces to 46 ounces, Tropicana said it lowered the manufacturer's suggested retail price accordingly.

"Getting the consumer to understand what a format change means and why it's beneficial is, at the end of the day, a critical component," he said. "Without the consumers' willing adoption of the innovation, you'll eventually see the brand owner go back to something that the consumer can accept and understand."

Because greater density results in reduced packaging sizes, "you're looking at a smaller billboard" for on-pack branding and messaging during certain design switches, Smurfit Westrock's Nicholas said.

"Therein lies part of the tension," he said. "It requires testing to ensure shoppers are still engaged."

That being said, expert predictions overwhelmingly indicate the square isn't going anywhere for e-commerce packaging.

"Will we see more square formats? Absolutely," Sasine said. "There's a lot to be said for three-dimensional squaring."