AI and semiconductor demand drive 7% year-on-year growth in global air cargo volumes in June

Briefing Highlights

• According to Xeneta, released on July 3,report, global air cargo demand rose 7% year-on-year in June, driven by AI hardware and semiconductor demand.
• Air cargo volumes related to AI hardware, especially on Asia-Pacific to North America routes, are offsetting the decline in e-commerce freight, which was the main driver of air cargo over the past two to three years, Xeneta said.
• "The scale of AI's impact is easy to underestimate because it accounts for only a small fraction of total air cargo volume—less than 10%," said Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw. "But the data confirming its role as the primary driver of air cargo growth is undeniable."

In-Depth Analysis

Xeneta's report shows that, driven by AI demand, rates on Northeast Asia to North America and Southeast Asia to North America routes surged 41% and 42%, respectively, in the last week of June compared to late February.

Taiwan manufactures most of the world's advanced chips, and according to Xeneta data, its GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 reached 15%, the fastest quarterly expansion in nearly five decades.

Meanwhile, Xeneta reported that global semiconductor sales doubled year-on-year in April, with a growth rate of 106%. This surge is the strongest since the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization began recording in 1986, and it has made the transpacific route the strongest trade corridor in 2026.

Although every air cargo growth engine will eventually stall, van de Wouw said air carriers should make full use of the AI dividend while it lasts. In the meantime, there are few signs of demand slowing in the short term.

"Now we have AI, and no one knows how long it will last," van de Wouw said. "The AI investment cycle could stumble, abruptly changing the demand we see and adding risk, but there is currently no sign that the AI dividend has peaked and is pushing air cargo demand downward."

Key June Data

• 7%: Global air cargo volume year-on-year growth
• $3.40: Average spot rate (per kg), up 38% year-on-year
• 41%: Average spot rate increase on Northeast Asia to North America (from week of Feb 23 to week of Jun 22)
• 42%: Average spot rate increase on Southeast Asia to North America (from week of Feb 23 to week of Jun 22)
• 25%: Average spot rate decrease on Europe to North America (from week of Feb 23 to week of Jun 22)
• 62%: Global dynamic load factor (measuring volume, shipment weight, and available capacity), up three percentage points year-on-year

While transpacific spot rates continue to climb, the Europe to North America route shows a different trend, with rates on that route falling 25% between late February and the first week of June, according to Xeneta data.

van de Wouw emphasized that the relationship between rising fuel prices and rates is not one-to-one. Airfreight rates follow supply and demand rather than fuel changes. For example, despite the Iran war pushing up jet fuel prices, transatlantic spot rates are declining.

"We advise shippers to adopt different floating mechanisms that do not rely on jet fuel costs, but are instead based on what freight forwarders actually pay to airlines," van de Wouw said.

However, overall, as Middle East capacity recovers andtensions begin to ease, spot rates are falling, Xeneta reported.

"At the start of the year, we did not expect global air cargo spot rates to rise 38% year-on-year in June, but now we are seeing rates begin to decline as expected, albeit more slowly than they rose," van de Wouw said.

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