Five Major Trends in Supply Chain Management for 2026
In 2026, supply chain management faces five major trends: geopolitical fragmentation, economic volatility, cost pressures, adjusted AI expectations, and workforce challenges. Experts point out that companies need to shift from short-term responses to long-term structural adjustments to seize opportunities amid uncertainty.
In 2026, supply chain uncertainty will not fade, but after a year of dramatic change (especially in global trade), companies have a stronger foundation to face future challenges. Experts told Supply Chain Dive that retailers and manufacturers forced into reactive mode in 2025 have adjusted amid tariffs and new regulatory frameworks, paving the way for bolder moves this year.
"I think there was a lot of wait-and-see sentiment in the past, but that seems to be ending. I see companies ready to make changes again," said Dustin Burke, co-leader of Boston Consulting Group's manufacturing and supply chain business.
However, being prepared does not mean companies will avoid turbulence in the next 12 months. The global trade landscape is still shifting, the economic outlook remains unclear, and logistics challenges continue to spread.
"The winners in 2026 will be those who can identify truly critical decision points and inflection points, detect them early, and quickly translate them into action to reshape operations," said Per Hong, global leader of Kearney's Foresight practice and partner in the Strategic Operations and Performance business.
With geopolitical turmoil already heating up early this year, here is a rundown of the major trends and risks supply chain managers may face in 2026.
1. Geopolitical risks will drive fragmentation and diversification
U.S. President Donald Trump'sbroad tariff systemwill continue to test supply chains in 2026. Although theSupreme Court's pending ruling on Trump's tariff powerscould weaken the current order, the White House has enacted multiple industry-specific tariffs and solidified others through various trade agreements.
"We will continue to see volatility and risk related to tariff structures, which affects how companies think about trade and may make long-term structural adjustments to supply chains more difficult to plan," Burke said.
Amid ongoing volatility, multiple experts told Supply Chain Dive that companies will continue to rely on more short-term tactics to buffer the impact of tariff changes.
"I would rather plan in six-month increments because people change their minds," said Suketu Gandhi, global chair partner of Kearney's Strategic Operations and Performance practice. "Leaders seem to change their minds every day. I can't run a business that way."
One strategy companies adopted in 2025 was front-loading shipments ahead of tariff implementation dates to maintain inventory levels. Although ports like thePort of Los Angelesare expected to see lower throughput this year compared to some of the front-loading peaks of 2025, a sharp decline is not anticipated.
"I think in 2026 we will see a normalization of this phenomenon, perhaps returning to more regular inventory flows," said Jess Dankert, vice president of supply chain at the Retail Industry Leaders Association.
Beyond tariffs, companies must also navigate evolving geopolitical risks, especially as the Trump administration increasingly uses aggressive tactics to advance its international goals.
Meanwhile, according to Hong, theupcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreementthis summer will be a critical turning point for the three countries' supply chains. He added that a revised agreement and other bifurcated trade deals globally will further fragment the world economy.
"Companies and countries will have to operate not within trade blocs, but within these sub-bifurcations or bilateral agreements, which brings greater complexity to the enterprise as a whole," Hong said.
In this context, experts say companies will reassess supplier relationships, viability, and network visibility, while others will focus on further diversifying or regionalizing their supply chains.
2. Economic volatility will test supply chains
A Moody's December report showed overall consumer spending remained resilient in 2025, but is expected to slow this year as affordability concerns and a weakening labor market pressure consumer wallets. Ongoing consumer pressure will test supply chains in 2026 from a planning and pricing perspective, affecting retailers, consumer goods companies, and upstream industries such as packaging and chemicals, Burke said.
"It's no longer about a single debt crisis, but how to manage overall viability."
Per Hong
Partner, Strategic Operations and Performance, Kearney
According to Rick Jordon, senior managing director and co-leader of U.S. business transformation at FTI Consulting, the sluggish housing market is also expected to have ripple effects on supply chains in 2026. Beyond commodities like lumber, fewer housing units under construction means reduced demand for furniture, sinks, and other household goods, impacting manufacturers of such products. As global debt levels continue to rise, companies may also feel the impact of deteriorating supplier economic performance, Hong said.
"It's no longer about a single debt crisis, but how to manage overall viability," Hong said, encouraging companies to stress-test suppliers for refinancing risks, redesign inventory strategies to accommodate payment terms, and diversify reliance on fragile logistics corridors.
3. Cost optimization will become a top priority
Experts say that due to ongoing uncertainty from fluctuating trade and economic factors, costs are expected to rise, forcing companies to prioritize cost optimization in their supply chains more than ever in 2026. For example, Burke expects many companies to optimize their global manufacturing and distribution networks to offset idle capacity that is no longer cost-competitive. This could lead to initiatives such as plant closures and distribution network consolidation.
In distribution, according to Matt Stekier, principal at Plante Moran, companies may also more aggressively review the geographic layout of their networks and transportation costs as freight rates fluctuate.
"Transportation costs are like car insurance: you should get quotes every few years because if you don't re-quote every few years, you might be paying more than necessary," Stekier said.
Mike Short, global president of freight at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, wrote in a November article that mode flexibility will also be a key tool for maintaining supply chain resilience in the coming year. "Be prepared to switch between ocean, air, and other modes as market conditions change, including exploring sea-air and LCL consolidation strategies," Short wrote.
4. The AI boom will face recalibration
Every industry is chasing the promise of artificial intelligence, but 2026 is likely to be a turning point for the technology's future in supply chains. Experts say many companies have not yet achieved the expected immediate, large-scale impact from their AI investments, prompting leaders to adjust timelines and expectations.
"We are seeing supply chains becoming more self-correcting, with AI predicting disruptions, optimizing processes, and potentially automating planning," said Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management. "Unfortunately, despite significant investment in AI, the return on investment has not yet materialized."
However, according to Gandhi, resetting expectations will not stop companies from continuing to experiment and push AI deployment in their operations, citing falling technology costs and the rapid pace of innovation in the field as key drivers.
"Transportation costs are like car insurance: you should get quotes every few years because if you don't re-quote every few years, you might be paying more than necessary."
Matt Stekier
Principal, Plante Moran
Burke said agentic AI is poised to be a particularly attractive technology in supply chains due to its applications in demand planning, forecasting, and decision-making. Meanwhile, generative AI is also rapidly gaining traction in the supply chain industry, witha West Monroe reportfinding that 91% of mid-market manufacturers use it in some form. However, supply chains are still in the early stages of leveraging these tools and capturing potential benefits.
"The operating models behind supply chains have not evolved as quickly as the technology, which will create a breaking point," Hong said. According to the West Monroe report, in 2026, companies will focus on scaling AI responsibly by building data foundations, workforce skills, and governance guardrails, moving beyond experimentation to achieve measurable, scaled outcomes.
5. Companies will address supply chain workforce challenges
From the factory floor to the boardroom, the supply chain workforce will continue to undergo significant transformation in 2026 as companies grapple with an aging leadership, labor shortages, and the need to introduce new skills. According to Hong, ongoing investment in AI and automation, coupled with labor restrictions from immigration regulations, is creating a profound divergence in labor availability, cost, and productivity, which will be a fundamental challenge for supply chains in 2026.
"Therefore, for supply chain leaders, labor is no longer a stable input," he said. "It is actually a strategic constraint."
Stekier said that given such workforce challenges, companies are working to make processes as lean as possible and increasingly investing in automation systems. Companies will continue to prioritize developing and retaining talent, as well as upskilling employees, to optimize production and complement new technologies like AI. However, finding workers who understand AI and providing adequate training remains a challenge.
"So, you have powerful systems, but the talent doesn't understand, critically think about, or solve problems with the data coming in and out," Eshkenazi said. "What we advocate is that your investment in talent should be commensurate with your investment in technology."
Antone Gonsalves contributed to this article.